Economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from China

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in China. Using all listed Chinese companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges as well as 4188 ​M&A deals from the period of 2001–2018, we show that Chinese firms are more likely to make acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty, which contradicts the behavior of US firms. We further show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are less likely than non-SOEs to make acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. SOEs are less likely to use only cash for their acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. These results indicate the prudence of SOEs regarding acquisitions relative to non-SOEs during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. Moreover, acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty are associated with an increase in shareholder wealth for acquirers, and this wealth effect is more pronounced for SOEs.     

Insolvency regimes and firms' default risk under economic uncertainty and shocks

One of the arguments often advanced for implementing a stronger insolvency and bankruptcy framework is that it enhances credit discipline among firms. Using a large cross-country firm-level dataset, we empirically test whether a stronger insolvency regime reduces firms' likelihood of defaulting on their debt. In particular, we examine whether it reduces default risk during increased economic uncertainty and various external shocks. Our results confirm that a stronger insolvency regime moderates the adverse effects of economic shocks on firms' default risk. The effects are more pronounced for firms in the top half of the size distribution. We also explore channels through which improved creditor rights influence firms' default risk, including dependence on external finance, corporate leverage, and managerial ethics. Our main results are robust to an alternative measure of default risk, inclusion of currency and sovereign debt crisis episodes, and alternative estimations.     

The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy

How and under what circumstances can adjusting the inflation target serve as a stabilization-policy tool and contribute to welfare improvement? We answer these questions quantitatively with a standard New Keynesian model that includes cost-push-type shocks. Our proposed inflation target rule calls for the target to be adjusted in a persistent manner and in the opposite direction to the realization of a cost-push shock, which is essentially a makeup strategy. The inflation target rule, combined with a Taylor-type rule, significantly reduces inflation fluctuations originating from cost-push shocks and mitigates the stabilization trade-off, resulting in a similar level of welfare to that associated with the Ramsey optimal policy.     

Does economic policy uncertainty raise corporate precautionary cash holdings? Evidence from China

Using China as the research setting, this paper investigates the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate precautionary cash holdings. Empirical results show a U-shaped relation between economic policy uncertainty and corporate precautionary cash holdings. Empirical analysis, in terms of ownership structure, firm size, corporate competitiveness and geographical location, further shows that (i) the effects for economic policy uncertainty in both state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises are significant, but the effect is stronger for state-owned enterprises; (ii) such significant effect is also found more strongly in small and medium-sized enterprises and highly competitive enterprises; and (iii) the effects for eastern, central and western China are all statistically significant, but the effect is strongest for eastern China.     

苹果种植适度规模经营研究*——以陕西省白水县为例

［目的］分析苹果种植户经济效益的影响因素，研究适合苹果种植的农地规模，提高白水县果农苹果种植的经济效益，探索苹果产业可持续发展经营模式，丰富以果蔬为主的集约型经济作物适度规模经营研究范围。［方法］采用实地调研法，对陕西省白水县230户苹果种植户进行问卷调查，从收益最大化角度，运用柯布道格拉斯生产函数对苹果生产的投入产出进行经济分析，构建收益最大化模型，测算白水县苹果种植的最适规模，分析苹果产量的影响因素，探讨劳动力投入、资本投入、有效面积和果农参加技术培训对苹果产出的影响和贡献程度，并用钱克明等对农地的适度经营规模定义进行结果验证，最后提出合理的政策建议。［结果］经过分析，在同等技术条件下，劳动力投入、资本投入、有效种植面积、果农参加技术培训的次数对苹果的产出具有显著影响。以农户收益最大化模型测算的劳均经营规模面积在0363~0447hm2（544~670亩）的可视为适度规模，根据钱克明等的适度经营规模目标值的计算，其函数解为550，在适度规模范围之内。即户均农地适度经营规模0751~0966hm2（1127~1449亩）。目前白水县苹果生产处于规模报酬递减阶段，农资市场环境和劳动力投入方面仍然存在短板。［结论］建议扩大白水县户均苹果种植面积，提升土地经营效益，从而增加果农收入，支持农业新型经营主体发展，创新发展模式； 建立新型职业农民培育体系，促进苹果种植户剩余劳动力转移，提高农民非农收入； 从法律上规范农村地区农资市场环境； 规范农户绿色生产经营行为，提高化肥的使用效率和开发新的高效肥料； 政府引导农地的适度规模集中，整合资源进行规模化、现代化的经营。     

荷兰农业绿色转型经验与政策启示

[目的]与我国的农业资源禀赋条件相似,荷兰人多地少,农业资源贫乏,却是世界农业强国,其20世纪80年代开始的农业转型之路对促进我国当前农业绿色发展具有重要借鉴意义。[方法]结合实地调研与文献研究,文章梳理了荷兰40年来在农业环境治理方面的具体政策设计和实施效果,并分析了其主要经验做法及对我国发展的启示。[结果]从畜禽养殖数量控制到化学投入品控制、再到农业资源全管理,荷兰始终坚持以种养结合的可持续发展模式应对农业资源环境挑战,不断强化循环利用技术推广应用,逐步建立了严格的农业资源环境监管体系和政府支持体系,在农业污染得到有效治理的同时,依然很好地保持了国际市场竞争力。[结论]荷兰曾经面对的养殖业污染、化学品过度投入等问题也是我国当前农业环境的突出问题,其当时采取的转型思路与我们目前的绿色发展理念高度一致,借鉴荷兰经验,加快推进我国农业绿色发展,亟需创新循环农业发展模式,加强绿色发展技术支撑,建立并完善农业绿色发展制度体系,协同推进农业资源环境保护和农业竞争力提升。     

Unconventional monetary policy and stock repurchases: Firm-level evidence from a comparison between the United States and Japan

This paper is the first comparative study examining the determinants of stock repurchases during the period of unconventional monetary policy. By constructing a vast firm-level dataset of the U.S. and Japan and conducting multivariate Tobit and probit analyses, this paper presents evidence that during the period of unconventional monetary policy, in both the U.S. and Japan, firms with more free cash flow and lower borrowing costs are more likely to repurchase stock, firms with higher financial leverage are more likely to abstain from stock repurchases, and firms coordinate dividends and stock repurchases to please shareholders. I also find striking contrasts between the results of U.S. and Japanese firms, and show the importance of financial structure in explaining the contrasting results. From a micro perspective, this paper provides new insight and evidence to support the view that financial structure should be thought of as an important factor determining the effects of unconventional monetary policy.     

Are China’s regional agricultural productivities converging: How and why?

This article tests the hypotheses of convergence to a single level of total factor productivity (TFP), and a steady state of TFP growth rate in China’s agricultural sector. Based on multilateral TFP estimates we found that China’s agricultural sector has rebounded in recent years from a slower TFP growth in the 2005–2007 period. While convergence test results confirm a “catch-up” effect that provinces with lower TFP levels tend to grow faster than others, estimated rates of β convergence are conditional on how we capture the heterogeneity effect across regions. The rates of β convergence range from 0.016 to 0.039 under different model specifications. Estimates show that higher growth rates of educational attainment, R&D, and intermediate goods density (per unit of labor) can enhance TFP growth. Unfortunately, there is no evidence of an overall σ convergence, indicating that TFP levels are not converging except in the South region. It implies that to catch up with leading provinces, it would require extra efforts for those lagging behind by increasing their region-specific research investment, promoting rural educational attainment, and enhancing embodied technical change.     

A classroom experiment in monetary policy

The authors propose a classroom experiment implementing a simple version of a New Keynesian model suitable for courses in intermediate macroeconomics and money and banking. Students play as either the central bank or members of the private sector. The central banker sets interest rates to meet twin objectives for inflation and the output gap or to meet only an inflation target. In both settings, private sector agents are concerned with correctly forecasting the inflation rate. The authors show that an experiment implementing this setup is feasible and yields results that enhance understanding of the New Keynesian model of monetary policy. They propose alternative versions where the central bank is replaced by a policy rule and provide suggestions for discussing the experimental results with students.     

农地流转市场中的土地流向及效果分析

［目的］我国农地流转市场发展迅速，农村土地呈现集中趋势。准确把握农村土地流动方向，探析农地流转对农业生产效率及农民收入的影响，对保障农地流转市场健康发展，实现农业现代化的关键，具有重要的现实意义。［方法］基于文献研究法对相关研究进行梳理和总结。［结果］（1）有效的农地流转市场使土地从低效率生产者流转至高效率生产者，从高收入农户流转至收入两端的农户，并有提高农业生产效率和增加农民收入的作用。转入户中存在显著的异质性差异，一部分是缺乏资金和人力资本的小规模农户，另一部分则是具有丰富资金和人力资本的大规模农户。（2）农业比较收益劣势易造成农地流转市场扭曲，改变土地流动方向，导致农业生产效率下降，并加剧农民收入的不平等。［结论］有效的农地流转市场有助于提高农业生产效率并增加农户收入。然而，农业较低的比较收益及政府的过度干预易造成农地流转市场扭曲，农业生产效率提升潜力难以发挥，增收效应减弱，农村收入差距加大。建议政府对农地流转进行有序引导，并注重劳动力市场及信贷市场的配套完善。